Two weeks of international climate negotiations wrapped up earlier this month in Bonn, Germany, where diplomats from around the world gathered to find common ground in advance of the larger UN summit: the Conference of Parties (COP), which is set for Dubai, United Arab Emirates in late November. COP, which is located in a different country each year, has ballooned over the years into a star-studded expo with nearly 50,000 attendees—complete with climate celebrities, presentations on emerging technology, and political posturing from heads of state. The annual climate talks at Bonn also take place under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Convention), but have consistently proven to be a reserved affair, where negotiations take place largely behind closed doors. This year’s talks, also known as SB58 (being the 58th meeting of the Subsidiary Bodies on Implementation and Scientific and Technological Advice under the Convention), were no different.
As an organization steadfastly committed to addressing and preventing sea level rise in the name of protecting our shorelines, these negotiations are very relevant to Surfrider Foundation’s mission. And while I’m currently interning with the Surfrider Legal Department this summer, I had the opportunity to attend in my capacity as a student legal clinician at Vermont Law School representing the island nation of Palau. My experience at this conference and at COP28 last November, including the incredible individuals I have come to know as a result, have contributed significantly to my education and helped to provide a perspective that are certain to provide valuable insight moving forward.
One challenge that I and others in my generation will need to confront is in developing policies to adapt to and reduce the impacts of climate change, especially those aimed at mitigating emissions, which are critical for preserving the shorelines that surfers, sunbathers, and sandcastle enthusiasts across the globe have come to call home. On a positive note, SB58 included a first-of-its-kind Ocean & Climate Change Dialogue, but in general the broader negotiations continued to stagnate, largely as the result of a general lack of trust between developed and developing parties.
SB58 took place within the broader context of a “stocktake” year, wherein parties to the Paris Agreement (the 2015 international treaty under which 195 nations agreed to independently reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to within 2.0°C, and ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels) are expected to assess progress towards their climate goals. It has been widely reported that nations are predominantly not on track to meet their targets, and that even the achievement of these targets is not enough to limit warming to ideal levels under the Paris Agreement. Despite this common understanding, parties failed to reach any consensus (necessary for making any binding decisions under the Agreement) on what sort of framework this global stocktake ought to follow; it remains to be seen how much substance can be agreed upon at COP28 in Dubai.
Sadly, the phrase of the day at SB58 was “trust deficit.” On the one hand, developed countries are being asked to reduce their emissions, which requires top-to-bottom, economy-wide restructuring of a fossil-fuel-dependent energy system. Though these parties, including the U.S., the EU, and Australia, accept the bulk of the responsibility for mitigating climate change, they feel that it is counterproductive to hold only rich countries to this standard while emerging economies, such as China and India, continue to ramp up coal- and other fossil-fuel-based energy generation capacity with little indication that they intend to undertake any meaningful energy transition. For developed countries, then, the issue of mitigation is one of common responsibility and shared commitment. On the other hand, developing countries, led by emerging economies like those just mentioned, are hesitant to commit to any highly ambitious emissions mitigation program, because they view the history of the Convention largely as a story of empty promises from developed countries, such as the still-unsatisfied commitment to deliver $100 billion USD of climate finance annually to developing countries. From this perspective, developing countries have little reason to believe that any commitments to mitigate emissions on their part will be met with reciprocity by rich nations; placing such unfounded trust in the Global North would amount to an unwarranted “leap of faith,” some say.
This fundamental, historically rooted trust issue between rich and poor countries bled into the SB58 talks to adopt an agenda. Though typically a formality that achieves consensus well before the conference gets underway, adoption of the conference agenda—which consists of items that parties are obligated to address at a given conference—stalled this year because emerging economies, led by China, refused to accept any agenda containing an item on mitigation unless it also included an item reemphasizing the importance of climate finance on the part of developed countries. Eventually, on the penultimate day of the conference, the parties agreed to adopt the provisional agenda without either item included, but the message was loud and clear: COP28 seems destined to be bitterly divisive.
As the climate “time bomb” continues to tick, it seems unconscionable that nations continue to draw political lines in the sand. Action is needed now. Climate change not only expedites the erosion of our priceless shorelines and therefore our ability to recreate on the sandy beaches we know and love, but also the quality of our drinking water; the ability of coastal communities and ecosystems to adapt to climate change; and even the health of our oceans and fisheries. And while for many Americans the scourge of climate change remains a hypothetical, far-off reckoning, for other communities around the world, its impacts constitute an especially heavy burden– one that is being felt currently. The island nation of Palau, for example, whose negotiators I worked with personally while attending the Bonn conference, has a population of about 18,000 people, most of which live on or near the coast of one of the archipelago’s 340 low-lying islands. Palau’s economy relies largely on tourism from those flocking to see its pristine beaches, unique local fauna and flora, and sparkling blue waters; much of this tourism, in turn, is reliant on the health of Palau’s marine ecosystem. Consequently, climate-change-related issues like loss and damage funding—which for many countries still constitute little more than philosophical thought experiments—pose everyday challenges for citizens of island nations like Palau, who are already enduring reduced fisheries production, increased frequency of tropical storms, and climate-induced migration. Further, it merits mention that these vulnerable nations continue to bear the brunt of the ongoing climate onslaught despite having contributed so little to the global issue of anthropogenic climate change.
Surfrider understands the importance of work at the local level to better prepare communities for the effects of climate change, like planting mangroves and lobbying for climate-friendly legislation, as well as the need for movement at both the international and national levels in order for the necessary overhaul of the world’s economy to take place. The impacts of climate change are going to get worse in our lifetimes, not better, and rather than bury their heads in the sand (as some seemed to do at SB58), it is imperative that nations collectively take proactive steps to mitigate and adapt to these impacts while it is still practically feasible to do so: the fate of our oceans, our shorelines, and our most vulnerable communities hangs in the balance.